The first quarter 2020 Sales History & Outlook Report (SHOR) released by the Power Transmission Distributors Association (PTDA) indicates the COVID-19 outbreak and oil supply-demand imbalance have resulted in an unprecedentedly steep drop-off in sales across many sectors of the economy.

The PTDA Distributors SHOR Index and Manufacturers SHOR Index will likely reach cyclical lows in early 2021 with a subsequent rise that will last through at least 2022; however, the Indices are not expected to return to the 2019 level during that time.

The PTDA Business Index (a broader overall business metric than the SHOR)—for distributors rose in the first quarter of 2020, reaching 56.1 as did the manufacturer index, up to 41.7, but still indicated manufacturer activity is in decline. Upward momentum in both the PTDA manufacturer and distributor Business Indices will likely be short-lived, as the impact of the COVID-19 and oil price black swans will likely be more acute in the second quarter of the year.

PTDA members participating in SHOR receive the results and forecasts through 2022 at no charge after the close of the calendar quarter. For more specifics on the forecast for power transmission/motion control sales through distribution as well as forecasts for manufacturer sales, purchase the 1Q2020 SHOR at ptda.org/SHOR.

The PTDA Business Index is modeled after the widely respected PMI and tracks the change in business activity, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and backlog in the PT/MC industry to arrive at an overall index. The entire 1Q2020 PTDA Business Index report is available through PTDA’s website at ptda.org/Index.

The Power Transmission Distributors Association is the leading global association for the industrial power transmission/motion control (PT/MC) distribution channel. Headquartered in Chicago, PTDA represents power transmission/motion control distribution firms that generate more than $16 billion in sales and span over 2,700 locations. PTDA members also include manufacturers that supply the PT/MC industry.