As the government shutdown stretches into Day 23, the vacuum of reliable federal economic data continues to widen. While the Bureau of Labor Statistics will briefly break the data drought with Friday’s CPI release, other timely, longstanding data sources can help fill the gap — particularly freight rail traffic.
Released each Wednesday at noon, this report tracks the movement of 20 key commodities across North America. It remains one of the most timely and trusted indicators of economic activity.
Freight Rail Index
The Association of American Railroads’ Freight Rail Index (FRI) tracks economically sensitive commodities to provide a timely snapshot of rail activity. Historically, freight rail volumes have moved closely in line with GDP and industrial production, making FRI a valuable real-time barometer for policymakers, economists and business leaders assessing the economy’s health.
Recently, FRI has stabilized between 110 and 113, signaling steady goods movement and industrial resilience amid the ongoing federal data blackout. Its consistency points to an economy that has cooled from post-pandemic highs but remains fundamentally strong.
AAR will release FRI next on Friday, November 7th as part of the Rail Industry Overview.
Consumer Spending & Rail Intermodal
Intermodal volumes—closely tied to consumer goods demand—fell 4.8% year-over-year for the week ending October 18 but remain up 2.7% year-to-date.
Despite consumer confidence easing in September to a five-month low, household spending has remained resilient. The chart below illustrates these overlapping trends through September.
Rail Industrial Products v. Manufacturing Output
Rail shipments of industrial products, a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, rose for the fifth consecutive month in September, up 0.1% year-over-year. Growth was supported by gains in motor vehicles and stone/glass product movements—sectors that remain central to the manufacturing rebound.
Rail Traffic Keeps You Ahead of the Curve
Regardless of the federal government’s operating status, America’s railroads continue to move the goods that keep businesses running and the economy growing. By tracking what’s moving on the rails, AAR provides one of the few uninterrupted, real-time views of U.S. economic momentum—making freight rail data an essential tool for staying ahead of the curve.
