Survey Reveals Expectations for Consistent Future Sector Conditions

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation has released its December 2025 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI), revealing confidence in the equipment finance market remains steady at year end, and at a heightened level for the seventh consecutive month. The index, which provides a qualitative assessment from key executives in the $1.3 trillion sector, was 58.3 in December, easing from 59.9 in November.

December 2025 Survey Results:

• Business Conditions – When assessing the next four months, 12.5% of responding executives believe business conditions will improve, down from 25% in November. The majority (75%) believe business conditions will remain the same (up from 62.5% the previous month) and 12.5% believe business conditions will worsen, unchanged from November.
• Capex Demand – For the next four months, 20.8% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase (unchanged from November). Additionally, 75% expect demand to remain the same (up from 62.5%), and 4.2% believe demand will decline (down from 16.7% in November).
• Access to Capital – Over the next four months, 25% of respondents expect greater access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions, a decrease from 29.2% in November. The majority (70.8%) anticipate the “same” access to capital to fund business, unchanged from the previous month. Those expecting “less” access to capital increased to 4.2%, up from none in November.
• Employment – Regarding employment over the next four months, 50% of executives expect to hire more employees, an increase from 33.3% in November. Also, 45.8% foresee no change in headcount (down from 58.3% last month), and 4.2% expect to hire fewer employees, down from 8.3% from November.
• U.S. Economy – None of the respondents evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” down from 4.2% in November; 100% assess it as “fair,” up from 95.8% last month; and none evaluate it as “poor,” unchanged from November.
• Economic Outlook – Over the next six months, 12.5% of respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will “get better,” a decrease from 37.5% in November. Another 58.3% expect the U.S. economy to “stay the same,” up from 41.7%; and 29.2% believe economic conditions will worsen, up from 20.8% last month.
• Business Development Spending – Over the next six months, 37.5% of respondents believe their company will increase spending on business development activities, down from 45.8% in November. Those who believe there will be “no change” in business development spending increased to 58.3% (from 54.2% in November), and 4.2% believe there will be a decrease in spending (up from none last month).

December 2025 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Bank, Small Ticket

“The commercial equipment leasing and financing marketplace is dynamic and provides opportunity for organizations that are nimble and can solve customer problems. I think we are in a transition and that change will create opportunity for some and leave others wondering what happened. Wintrust Specialty Finance is a nimble organization that is always looking for the opportunity in the market so I feel that we are poised to have a solid finish to 2025 and a good start to 2026.”  David Normandin, CLFP, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wintrust Specialty Finance

Independent, Small Ticket

“There are some areas in the economy that are booming, some areas that are depressed, and most of the market appears to be just flat. Home sales continue to be soft and a lot of the economic cycle feeds off of homes sales activity.” James D. Jenks, CEO, Global Finance and Leasing Services, LLC

Independent, Middle Ticket

“The mixed economic environment will enable entrepreneurial equipment finance companies to thrive. I’m concerned about stagflation—inflation with a recession can be very troubling for any business or individual.” Jeffry Elliott, CLFP, CEO of Elevex Capital and Equipment Leasing & Finance Association Treasurer