Fuel shock, tighter air capacity, and Strait of Hormuz disruption reshape global freight planning

Dimerco Express Group has released its April 2026 Asia-Pacific Freight Report, showing a freight market increasingly driven by fuel costs, rerouting, and geopolitical disruption rather than by a broad surge in demand. The report points to continued expansion in global manufacturing, but with softer momentum, higher operating costs, and tighter booking conditions across key air, ocean, and rail lanes.

Manufacturing stays positive, but momentum is moderating

The April report shows global manufacturing PMI at 51.9, still in expansion territory after 52.4 in January. Across Asia, several export-oriented economies strengthened further, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and India. That matters for freight because underlying production continues to support shipments even as cost pressure rises across transport networks.

Air freight is tightening across Asia

Air cargo conditions are becoming more constrained in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia as higher fuel costs, longer routings, and service adjustments reduce effective capacity. In Taiwan, disruptions through Middle East hubs and rising fuel surcharges are pushing air rate increases of roughly 20% to 30%, especially for electronics and urgent cargo. South Korea is also seeing tighter capacity on U.S. and South Asia lanes, while several Southeast Asian markets are facing backlog conditions, shorter rate validity, and earlier booking requirements.

Ocean and rail markets are firming on disruption, not peak-season demand

Ocean carriers are layering in emergency bunker and fuel-related surcharges as Persian Gulf instability disrupts schedules and raises operating costs. In China, carriers are trying to push rates higher ahead of contract season, while Asia-Europe services continue to feel the impact of longer routings and reduced effective vessel supply. Rail into Europe is also moving up as cargo shifts away from disrupted ocean lanes, with China-Europe rail operators implementing another round of container-rate increases.

The Strait of Hormuz risk is reinforcing cost pressure

Recent events around the Strait of Hormuz have added urgency to that outlook. Disruption in the waterway has kept pressure on oil, jet fuel, and shipping costs, strengthening Dimerco’s view that fuel-related surcharges and route-by-route volatility will remain central drivers of freight in the near term. For shippers, that means tighter booking windows, more volatile rate validity, and a greater need to secure alternative routings before disruptions cascade across regions.

Trade enforcement is becoming another freight variable

Beyond transportation conditions, the report highlights a more difficult compliance backdrop. Dimerco points to the temporary 10% U.S. Section 122 import surcharge, new Section 301 investigations tied to overcapacity and forced labor exposure, and tighter import controls in technology categories. For importers, freight planning and trade compliance are becoming more closely linked, especially where sourcing, tariff exposure, and routing decisions intersect.

Key data points

• Global manufacturing PMI remained in expansion at 51.9, down from 52.4 in January.
• Jet fuel rose from about $95 per barrel in late February to $197 per barrel by March 20.
• Taiwan air freight rates increased by roughly 20% to 30% on disrupted lanes.
• North America air freight rates rose 20% to 50% as fuel surcharges and rerouting intensified.
• China-Europe rail hubs imposed $300 to $500 per-container increases in March, with broader market increases now exceeding $500 per container.

Outlook

“April is shaping up to be a cost-driven freight market, not a broad demand-driven one. We are seeing fuel shock and Middle East rerouting tighten air capacity from Taiwan, Korea, and across Southeast Asia, while ocean carriers layer in bunker-related surcharges, and rail into Europe moves higher as shippers look for alternatives. If disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continues, shippers should expect elevated freight costs, shorter rate validity, and more route-specific volatility across Asia-Europe and Asia-North America in the weeks ahead,” said Catherine Chien, Chairwoman of Dimerco.