The latest CapEx Finance Index (CFI), released today by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA), indicates the equipment leasing and finance sector is poised for a strong fourth quarter. Market volatility and a slowing economy have not affected equipment demand, which is heading into 2026 with significant momentum after the Fed lowered rates again at the December FOMC meeting. Financial conditions remain healthy, suggesting the sector will not be materially affected if borrowing costs stay near current levels next year.

• Total new business volumes (NBV) among surveyed ELFA member companies were $10.3 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, down slightly from the prior month.

• Year-to-date NBV contracted by 0.9% relative to the same period in 2024.

• Year-over-year, NBV dropped by 4.4% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

“Demand for equipment remained strong in November. New business volumes topped $10 billion for the fourth straight month,” said Leigh Lytle, President and CEO at ELFA. “We’re still on pace for one of our strongest years on record, and we expect that the Fed’s decision to lower the federal funds rate by 75 basis points in 2025 will bolster momentum for equipment demand next year. Even though policymakers may be done cutting for a while, the November financial data showed that delinquencies and losses remain relatively low, indicating that the industry is well-positioned for current financial conditions.”

Equipment demand tops $10 billion for fourth straight month. Total NBV grew by $10.3 billion in November. New activity declined by 2.1% from the previous month but remained above its trailing six-month average of $10.1 billion. The total new volume series tracks the amount of new activity added by banks, independents, and captives in a given month. Total new activity is on pace to reach $114.4 billion in 2025, slightly down from its all-time high in 2024 but still well above the average in the second half of the pre-pandemic expansion.

Small ticket volume growth tracks broader economic conditions and is an essential barometer of aggregate demand for equipment. Small-ticket deals grew by $3.3 billion, down from their 2025 high the previous month.

Activity at all three institution types declined in November. New deal growth at banks edged down by 1.0% to $4.9 billion, while volumes at captives declined by 9.3% to $2.9 billion, and latest activity at independents declined by 12.9% to $1.9 billion.

The overall credit approval rate remains elevated. The industry-wide average edged up to 78.2% in November. It continues to hover around its decade high. The average small ticket approval rate ticked up from the prior month to 81.4%, down from its 2025 high but still well above its 2024 average of 75.4%. The bank rate dipped to 79.4%. The rate at captives fell to 81.7%, while the rate at independents rose to 72.6%.

Delinquencies drop, while losses edged up. The overall delinquency rate dropped by 0.23 percentage points to 2.0%. The November decline offset the 0.24 percentage point increase in the previous month. The overall rate continues to oscillate in a narrow band between 1.9% and 2.2%. The average delinquency rate at banks and independents fell sharply, while the rate at captives rose.

The overall loss rate ticked up by 0.05 percentage points to 0.49% in November. The average loss rate for small ticket deals increased by 0.13 percentage points to 0.69%, the second-highest reading of 2025. Loss rates rose modestly at banks and captives, and more sharply at independents.

“Across the United States, demand continues to strengthen as companies reassess how they deploy capital amid rapid technological change. AI is accelerating refresh cycles for both devices and data-center infrastructure,” said Wayne Fowkes, Executive Vice President of the Americas, CHG-MERIDIAN. “At the same time, businesses are seeking greater financial flexibility as they navigate uncertain economic conditions. With 2025 shaping up to be one of the strongest years for our industry, we expect this momentum to continue, supported by agile, future-ready investment strategies that set a more resilient path for long-term competitiveness. The latest ELFA CapEx Finance Index underscores this shift and mirrors the strong growth we are seeing at CHG-MERIDIAN.”

Industry Confidence

The Monthly Confidence Index from ELFA’s affiliate, the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation, tracks the sentiment of executives in the industry. The index remains steady at year’s end at 58.3 from 59.9 in November, a heightened level for the seventh consecutive month.

Technical Note

New business volume data are concurrently seasonally adjusted each month to capture the latest seasonal patterns. Data in previous months and years may change due to updated seasonal factors.