2025 was a tale of two halves for warehouse automation. At the beginning of the year, conditions appeared positive, with interest rates expected to fall and vendors reporting stronger pipeline activity. However, in early 2025, tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a sharp rise in uncertainty. As a result, many companies reported the postponement of large capital expenditure projects. Toward the end of the year, however, uncertainty declined more quickly than anticipated, and order intake for 2025 ultimately grew by 7%, exceeding our previous expectations.
Higher order intake was driven primarily by two key factors. First, higher steel costs resulting from 25% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum led to higher system prices, which increased order intake on a nominal dollar basis. Second, a small number of end customers made significant investments that, collectively, were sufficient to drive market growth. These included Amazon’s significant increase in investment, Walmart’s continued investment in distribution centers, and projects from other large end customers such as Tesco, M&S, Ahold Delhaize, and Home Bargains.
Competitive landscape: A tale of two halves
As a result of selected end customers making substantial investments in 2025, we observed a corresponding concentration of growth among a limited number of automation vendors. This small number of vendors achieved significant growth, whereas the majority, particularly those serving small- to mid-sized customers, performed less well.
For example, Dematic’s order intake grew by 50% in the first three quarters of 2025, while Toyota Industries’ Logistics Systems order intake grew by 65% over the same period. TGW also reported strong performance, with order intake rising by 55% in its 2025 financial year (ending October 2025). We also believe that Witron and Symbotic experienced significant increases in their order books following project announcements, although these figures have not yet been officially reported.
While these large automation vendors performed particularly well, this positive sentiment was not shared across the wider market. Most automation vendors experienced sluggish performance in 2025. AutoStore, typically associated with small- and medium-sized projects (though it has recently undertaken several large-scale, high-throughput projects), experienced a 5% decline in order intake during the first three quarters of the year. Although not publicly disclosed, many automation vendors have indicated that 2025 was characterized by slow growth, with a significant number reporting declines in order intake.
What’s causing this performance disparity?
This divergence in performance among vendors is largely driven by two factors: first, the size of the vendors and their ability to service large-scale projects; and second, the strength of their existing relationships with the end customers making these large investments. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) reduced capital expenditure (CapEx) in 2025 due to tariff-related uncertainty. However, we observed a small number of large end customers making substantial investments in warehouse automation, such as Amazon, Aldi, and Tesco in the UK. Automation vendors that already had strong relationships with these behemoths were well placed to capitalize on this concentrated surge in demand for automation.
This marks a shift from the previous few years, during which automation vendors focused on small- to mid-sized end customers, typically outperforming those targeting large accounts. In the years following the pandemic, large end customers slowed investment activity after overbuilding during COVID-19, whereas SMEs continued to invest at disproportionately higher levels. In contrast, in the current geopolitical environment, SMEs have become more cautious and have therefore slowed their investment, contributing to weaker performance among vendors serving this segment.
Bucking the trend
While this represents a general trend we observed, several companies fall outside the narrative. Honeywell’s Warehouse and Workflow Solutions group, for example, experienced a 37% contraction in revenue in 2024, followed by only 2% revenue growth in 2025. Although this does not directly reflect order intake, it highlights the company’s current difficult position. Given Honeywell’s size and scale, this demonstrates that not all large OEM-based system integrators benefited from the elevated investment levels of large end-customers in 2025.
Similarly, several mobile-robot vendors significantly outperformed the broader market in 2025. Geek+, for example, reported 30% growth in order intake in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, several other mobile robot vendors reported strong order intake following a more subdued 2024. Performance across the segment was uneven, and not all mobile robot vendors performed well in 2025. Some continued to face financial stress, with a number filing for bankruptcy, including EK Robotics, and Zebra announced its planned disposal of Fetch Robotics.
Final thoughts
In summary, 2025 was characterized by a small number of outsized investments that collectively moved the market. This enabled a limited number of large automation vendors to significantly outperform their competitors. We expect order intake to become more broadly based in 2026, with a growing share of investment likely to come from small and medium-sized end customers as geopolitical and economic uncertainty continues to ease.
This trend will be further supported by increasing greenfield activity toward the end of 2026, as vacancy rates are projected to continue declining and the excess warehousing capacity built during the pandemic becomes more fully utilized.
About the Author
Rowan Stott is a research analyst for Interact Analysis. With an academic background in physics and experience in experimental environments, Rowan works in our Warehouse Automation sector. He has a keen interest in micro-fulfillment, rapid delivery, and last-mile logistics, and is helping expand our research coverage in this fast-growing area.
